Last time we reviewed the ECRI call for a recession we noted Lakshman Achuthan saying it will be obvious in retrospect and usually their calls are 6-ish months early – i.e. the data has to be revised down the road to reflect reality. Wall Street has been mocking this call of late as the "meh" data continues to come in domestically, rather than data points that signal recession. The opening question in this Bloomberg interview yesterday pretty much sums up the attitude of the "what have you done for me lately, instant gratification" crowd. It is sort of funny.
Outside of the economic data, bulls point to the continued strength in corporate earnings and the lack of warnings from corporations who in theory have better sight lines on what is happening than anyone else. Well guess what has recently been changing? I neglected to mention both Texas Instruments (TXN), and Altera (ALTR) warned last night – so both chemicals and semis have seen a change in condition very recently. Both of these groups are 'deep cyclicals'. Somewhere this morning the folks at ECRI need to be smiling.
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