Elliott Wave godfather Robert Prechter talks to Yahoo Breakout about the coming year's election and market – he is calling for a Jan 2012 top.
p.s. the S&P 500 just went green for the year
6 minute video – email readers will need to come to site to view.
"We think the stock market actually is a better predictor of who's going to win the election, than the election is of where the stock market is going," Prechter contends. "This coming year, if my scenario works out, stocks are likely to be lower. And if that's true, the incumbent is likely to be thrown out, not be reelected."
It's tough to tell what 2012 holds, particularly when we still can't predict whether the broader stock market will end 2011 in positive territory. This one is truly coming down to the wire.
According to Bob Prechter's analysis, the market is in a major topping process, or what he calls a "grand super cycle top, bigger than in 1929." Therefore his outlook for stocks next year is gruesome, to put it softly.
"A down market is pretty much a guarantee that the current incumbent will not stay in (office). If it's an up market, and I'm wrong, then he's likely to be reelected," he says.
Only time will tell. But in the meantime, some parting advice: "Be safe, be cautious, don't join any of these bubbles and run-ups because you're going to have a terrific buying opportunity about four or five years from now," says Prechter.
Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio. Securities mentioned may or may not be held by the author in the mutual fund he manages, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX). For a list of the aforementioned fund's holdings at the end of the prior quarter, visit the Paladin Funds website at http://www.paladinfunds.com/holdings/blog