While the technical definition of recession commonly used is negative GDP two quarters in a row, it is actually something far less simple.
ECRI has been calling for recession for a few quarters now and with the data coming in, it is looking more accurate now – especially if you use the definition on the NBER website:
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production (IP).
Lakshman Acuthan visited Bloomberg early this week for an extended interview – email readers will need to come to site to view:
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