Loss of Uptrend Since Mid November « Market Montage

The negatives are now piling up.  After failing to break over early November highs (twice) the S&P 500 has now broken the uptrend channel it had been riding since mid November.  Recall both rallies of 2012 happened within long multi channel ranges – the first in Jan-March was more calm, whereas the June-mid Sep version was much more violent due to Europe.  This one in mid November to thru Christmas was much shorter of course and is now broken as you can see below.   Also you can see the first "lower low" of this rally.

Of course we all know the story by now… so many of the gains of 2012 (and 2011 and 2010 and 2009) have come in overnight gap ups on news, so with this sort of heavy selling during the past week when they announce the cliff "solution" no one who is using technical analysis will have much exposure on to take advantage of it.

More broadly speaking, more negatives are piling up.  Apple – as tiring as it is to talk about – simply can't get out of its own way and without it, the NASDAQ has a difficult time of doing much.  Small caps which had been the leader of this move the past few weeks also are now diverging back… but still over early November highs by a nose.  The Russell 2000 has about 5 points to play with.

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