Familiar Story « Market Montage

The S&P 500 is up a whopping 4.5 points versus the close of Jan 2nd.  The entire year thus far was made on the first day and since then there has been a bunch of churn and nothing else.  This should be very familiar to investors of the past few years – massive overnight moves on "news" and then a lot of churn/selling during the daytime sessions until the next piece of news.  One exception was Q1 2012 but that was definitely the exception not the rule of the past 18 months.

If interested, John Hussman has a note out this weekend saying margin debt is 2% of GDP – the only other times this happened were the top of 2000, the top 0f 2007, and the intermediate top in February 2011.  Just food for thought, not a short term indicator of any kind but certainly an intermediate item to keep in mind.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.