The Federal Reserve releases its full minutes with a 5 year delay. While it is easy to say "can't believe they missed this or that" with hindsight as our ally some of the things they did miss, with their role as a financial oversight body, and contacts that no one else has aside from maybe the U.S. Treasury, is stunning. Geithner, as the head of the NY Fed, with all the Wall Street contacts, is especially galling to read about – but I guess that gets you a promotion in this day and age. Bernanke was in his own world of unicorns and rainbows as were just about every other official. The only people who seemed to have some form of clue is Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed (a favorite of mine as far as Fed officials go) and surprisingly "ever easy money policy" Janet Yellen who was centered in the housing boom/bust epicenter of CA.
If this stuff is up your alley it is worth searching the internet for summaries of what was going on – truly amazing how blind these people were, and why I shake my head when people take their 5 year forecasts or even 12-24 month outlooks as some form of gospel. Here is one such article from Bloomberg, but there are many others out there with more detail. Next year's transcripts (of 2008) should be a real doozy.
“The odds are that the market will stabilize,” Bernanke told the committee in Aug. 2007, according to the transcripts from that year.
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