Constant Rotation « Market Montage

While the indexes are not pulling in there has been a consistent rotation under the surface as some groups sell off, and others take the lead.  The last few days we've had oils and more conservative areas such as consumers staples and healthcare lead.  Meanwhile a lot of the leading (and VERY extended) sectors have come in.  So while a "correction" does not seem to be happening, it actually has – just in individual sectors.

Today we have strength in a lot of the commodities (steel, coal, mining, metals) – areas that have done little the past few weeks.  Small and mid caps resting, big caps leading.

I don't have the dates marked below but this is the S&P 500 chart on a 30 minute time frame for all of January.  Note the purple line (exponential 50 period moving  average).  Other than a few hours on Jan 8th and 1.5 hrs on the 15th there has been no puncture of this level the entire month.  And there have been bounces off this level many times thus far in 2013, including today and yesterday.  So if we are seeking a trend change the first step would be a break below the 50 period moving average and staying there rather than an immediate rebound.

[click graph TWICE for larger chart]





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