Lots of Movement, No Progress « Market Montage

With today's rally the S&P 500 is back to where it was January 29th on a closing basis.  There has been a lot of movement in markets the past month, but nothing in terms of progress.

Thus far 2013 has been

  • A huge first day of the year
  • Two weeks of consolidation early to mid January
  • A two week rally mid to late January
  • Sideways for a month
The only period for trend traders to really capture was that two week rally in mid to late January.

While the bulls are back pounding their chests today it has to be noted that the volume on the down days the past week has been far superior to the volume on the rally days (last Friday and today).  In the era of QE volume has meant far less than it used to do pre 2009, but it does not preclude the point the participation factor is far greater on the downside than upside of late.  On the positive side the "right" sectors are leading today but these also have been the most oversold short term.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.