A Conversation with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor

It has been just over a year since the last conversation with Andrew Horowitz and his weekly podcast, so we just had our return engagement at the end of last week (right before the big Friday drop).   Most of the focus was on the market that just won't quit, the constant rotation, the lack of correction, the divergences that have yet to matter and the like.   Feel free to…

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Tuesdays with Benjamin

This chart sums it up – the market has been all about Tuesdays since mid January.  Flat otherwise.   What is peculiar is that while some of us were talking about this pattern 6-7 weeks ago, it has in the last few weeks become obvious to everyone – yet still continues.  That's not how it used to work…once something becomes obvious on Wall Street it traditionally fails quite quickly….

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SPX Reaching Historical Extremes on Weekly/Monthly Chart

We are starting to see some very extreme readings on our monthly and weekly index charts since there has been no correction this year.  I posted below first the monthly chart of the S&P 500 going back 15 years showing bollinger bands – rarely do we get above the upper monthly one, and never have we been this far above during this time frame.  Then below that I posted…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Jul10

LinkedIn (LNKD) has been suffering substantially the past two days after it was reported that Facebook (FB) was planning to launch a "jobs board" this summer.  Strangely a company like Monster Worldwide (MWW) which would seem far more threatened fell yesterday and today recovered all those losses.  LinkedIn – not so much.

  • The board will aggregate the job postings of third-party providers, making them available for search by Facebook users.
  • While these knowledgeable people said the new effort doesn't yet signal that Facebook is making a full-blown entry into the job-recruiting market, it does represent more of a threat to other professional networking sites such as LinkedIn (LNKD), should the social-networking giant get more serious about the project.
  • At least three job-posting companies that currently leverage Facebook's platform will be involved in the new offering, including BranchOut, Jobvite, and Work4 Labs, the people said. Some partners have begun telling their clients about the job board, which could launch as soon as early August. Initially, Facebook doesn't plan to monetize the service, and it's unclear whether the social network aims to do so in the future.
  • "It doesn't feel like a big effort that they've worked on for a long time," said one person with knowledge of the new jobs effort. "It feels lightweight." The person speculated that the effort was meant to drive user engagement on the site.

 

I have a hard time seeing professional recruiters utilizing Facebook as they do LinkedIn, but in the short run everything is a knee jerk reaction.  From the description above this seems like a "throwaway business" simply to drive people to the site and engage users more. That said there are some Fortune 500 companies who do utilize Facebook pages to recruit but the mixing of personal and professional business seems "dangerous" from a user's perspective, especially those in the under 35 set who put a lot more of their personal information out there for all (or many) to see.

This foray reminds me of the late 90s when nearly every Web 1.0 company created an auction site to compete with Ebay.  In the end, there was / is only one Ebay but each time a press release came out, Ebay would get hit.  There is a lot to first mover advantage.  That said, Facebook is Facebook with a ton of users so its not like Pets.com.

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Jul10

Interesting spot here on the S&P 500 as we have both a gap overhead (created by the Friday labor report) and a gap underneath (created by the EU summit).  This morning we are gapping up (yet again) into the Friday gap, which would fill up at 136.29 on the SPY chart.

As for the action, we've had three days of correction after that extreme overbought reading I mentioned middle of last week.  While the S&P 500 came down to the top of that Europe gap up area – and tested slightly below it – the market held in ok.  The longer this index stays over 1345 the better… but at worst bulls want to see 1335-1338 held.  

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Jul09

I am sure this will end well.  Obviously the root cause is the massive shift of retirement obligations from the company to the employee over the past few decades.  Combine that with a 12+ year world of no returns, and a lack of savings and you get people in their older age realizing they don't have enough to retire, and turning to methods such as this. Per the LATimes:

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Jul09

I've been speaking quite a while about the difficult this earnings period could be.  I've actually been more concerned about future guidance – Q3 and Q4 seem wildly optimistic in the context of a global slowdown, but as we get closer to the actual reporting period I've become concerned with the Q2 data as well.  We've already had a flurry of high profile warnings and with both an European and Chinese slowdown, a lot of the multinational revenue growth could be in question.  The stronger dollar also does not help these firms.  

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Jul09

Economist Nouriel Roubini rose to fame on the back of the 2008 financial crisis. [Aug 20, 2008: Roubini - "Told You So"]  Lately he has been raising a fuss about 2013 – we first wrote about that last summer. [Jun 12, 2011: Nouriel Roubini Getting "Roubini-ish" about 2013]  Bloomberg has a video with Nouriel from a conference this past weekend that sounds very "doomsy" – please remove all sharp objects from your vicinity before viewing. 

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