60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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May03

Looks like a very nice report out of LinkedIn (LNKD) after the bell.  Analysts were looking for $178.6M and 9 cents.  The company reported $188.5M and 15 cents.  Year over year revenue growth of 101%.   Guidance for next quarter is $210-$215M versus analyst's $208M.  Guidance for the year goes up from $840-$860M to $880-$900M.   Analysts were already at $877M (above LNKD's old guidance) for the year.  The stock is all over the place in after hours but definitely up – flipping around like a fish out water in the $115-$120 range, after a close near $110.  if you are curious the stock debuted in May 2011 and topped out at $122.70 that day.  Full report here.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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May03

I am butchering the saying but you get the idea.

After breaking support intraday, it would be quite "cute" if the market closed at at or very near the 1393-1394 area going into tomorrow's jobs data.  (repeat after me: "the most important data point of our lives!")  That would set up perfectly on a line everyone is watching, going into a bipolar outcome.  I don't like all the emphasis on these single data points – it's like they have turned the market into a Fantasy Football league.  I have always disliked having a lot of exposure going into an individual stock earning reports for the same reason (bipolar outcomes) and these economic reports that everyone keys on, are like an earnings report for the entire stock market.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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May03

It is funny nowadays to see how technically oriented this market is.  Once S&P 1394 broke we immediately saw a swan dive of some 5 S&P points in minutes.  Both carbon based and silicon based life forms are watching the same things.  Once a level breaks, the stops are tripped and woosh we go.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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May03

This area at S&P 1393/1394 is important and this is the third day of the past four the market has come down to visit it intraday.  The last two times have led to bounces but the more times we visit the more troublesome.  The reason this level is key is it is where the index broke out of during the April correction, so it was a line in the sand to the upside, and this week to the downside.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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May03

We spoke about the issue with David Einhorn getting on the Herbalife (HLF) conference call a few days ago.  Some people tried to 'catch a bottom' in the stock since it had fallen so much.  I cannot stress enough how this guy is respected as a short seller and even IF HE WAS EVENTUALLY WRONG it does not matter – it will cause panic in the stock and more importantly OTHER INSTITUTIONS to attack.  This is playing out.  Further, yesterday's disaster in Green Mountain Roasters (GMCR) – another Einhorn target – is "piling on".   Yes, eventually this stock is going to have a massive oversold bounce … and for all I know there is not one issue with the business.  But none of that matters in the near term – no reason to be a hero when there are thousands of stocks out there.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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