60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

Read More

WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

Read More

The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

Read More

May01

PIMCO's Bill Gross' May letter is out and at its heart it says the same thing many of us do believe.  We are "papering over" a world of madness without doing any real structural solutions.  For now, it's happy happy joy joy…. until one day the "solutions" today come back to bite us.  No different than the solutions to Y2K and the stock market busting/lack of income growth for the average humanoid in 99 and the early to mid 00s.  Of course timing is everything!

For you "more mature" folk (I am included) who remember the old Popeye cartoons he uses Wimpy as a fun example.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

May01

Herbalife (HLF) was having a rough day dealing with an earnings forecast below expectation offered last evening, but it just got worse as apparently noted hedge fund manager (and short seller supreme – think Lehman Brothers) David Einhorn got on the conference call to "ask some questions".   Once Einhorn gets involved you can bet a ton of institutional "me too" money will piggy back.  We saw that in Green Mountain Roasters (GMCR) last year. [Oct 26, 2011: David Einhorn has Crushed Green Mountain Roasters]  Per flyonthewall.com

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

May01

Good news on the ISM number, taking the market from unchanged to up 0.3% on the first reaction.  Of the subindexes – new orders +3.7, employment +1.2, and prices flat.  Can't ask for much more than that.  Full report here.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

May01

There seems to be a dichotomy between the official Chinese Purchasing Managers Index – which focuses heavily on larger/state backed companies – and the private HSBC report which looks more at medium/smaller companies.  The latter has been in contraction mode for quite a period of time, while the 'official' data has been in expansionary route.   Take it as you will, but with any government data one must take a lot of salt before ingesting.  Either way futures have not been affected much by last night's PMI figure, which is the main concern in the near term.  U.S. Manufacturing ISM is out at 10 AM – bulls certainly do not want to a see a sharp deceleration and in terms of the market holding the lower 1390s would be a good thing.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Apr30

The stock of Monster Beverage (MNST) just did a nose dive, and dropped from $76ish to $67ish.

Edit 3:54 PM – make that $65's.  And there goes the entire day's gains as the stock is now flat on the session. Whew.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More