60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

Read More

WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

Read More

The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

Read More

Apr29

I had another opportunity to speak with Andrew Horowitz this weekend — last we spoke [Mar 12, 2012: A Chat with Andrew Horowitz]  the market was in "teflon" mode (at least in large caps) in early March but of course since then things have become much more volatile.  Main topics of conversation were Investor Business Daily's call back to (tentatively) constructive mid week, why Europe's currency is holding the region back, recent market action, and corporate profits.   Long time futures/commodities trader Larry Williams was Andrew's other guest in this week's show.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Apr27

I've been focusing a lot more on individual stock reports this week (and will next week as well) as a lot of the more interesting names in the mid cap space are during this time frame.  There have been some incredible movements post earnings today – Deckers Outdoors (DECK) to the downside, Amazon.com (AMZN) to the upside – to name just a few.  Expedia (EXPE) might be the biggest earnings mover of the day.  Technically this sleepy stock has been doing nothing for a few months – and then today we get the explosion.  Which is probably why a lot of people love to gamble on earnings – sort of like golf, that one great hit keeps you coming back to it.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Apr27

Lost in the Spanish debt downgrade and U.S. GDP was "more QE ma'am" from the Bank of Japan announced overnight:

  • The Bank of Japan added monetary stimulus for a second time in three months amid mounting calls from lawmakers to redouble efforts to spur economic growth.  The central bank expanded its asset-purchase fund to 40 trillion yen ($494 billion) from 30 trillion yen, according to a statement released in Tokyo today. It also extended the maturity of bonds it buys to 3 years from a two-year limit.

In U.S. dollar terms its a measly $60 Billion but the global race to devalue/debase currency continues at break neck pace.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Apr27

PIMCO's Bill Gross has a wide ranging interview on Bloomberg discussing all sorts of topics from more QE, the Fed following the Bank of England's plan to ignore any inflation as 'temporary' so they can continue ultra easy policies, the dysfunction in Europe, the potential for recession, among other topics. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Apr27

It's not the news; it's the reaction to the news.  Color me shocked that the Spanish market is up well in excess of 1% despite the S&P downgrade.   Not sure how you can take that other than bullish.

U.S. Q1 GDP just came out at 2.2% vs 2.6% expectation.  This number will be revised multiple times from now and is backwards looking so not much to fuss over.  The markets fell slightly on the news but no major negative reaction at this time which is a positive.

Personal consumption was up 2.9% versus expectations of 2.3%; core PCE deflator (a measure of inflation the Fed enjoys) a bit hot at 2.3% versus 1.3% last quarter.  Business investment and government spending light.  Inventories were a huge help to the number.

But for market participants all that matters is futures are hanging in there despite two body blows.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More