Market Montage
Stock Market, Economics, Equity Analysis
Mar21
Sometimes you look at a stock and say "everyone knows this is going to happen so it must already be priced into the stock". That was my view of Lions Gate (LGF) a few weeks ago as the first summer blockbuster, "Hunger Games" was set to be released this weekend. Unfortunately, the "efficient market" is not really so much and the stock has exploded on huge volume the past few days. Hmphfh! …
Mar21
I usually don't highlight analyst upgrades (or downgrades) for reasons cited by the previous post but there are a few analyst calls today which are quite eye opening, in terms of price increases. Again, I don't take much heed to them but the lemming herd certainly does. And the magnitude of some of these price increases today is a bit jaw dropping – this morning Jeffries came in and pushed Fossil's (FOSL) target up from $125 to $160. One has to wonder where these people were when the stocks were much lower in price – the behavior is reminding me of 1999 in some ways; as stocks go up analysts expand the multiple to justify price increases. Also I loved this line: "Fossil has a near monopoly on the watch category"? <– in what universe. …
Mar21
Even after all these years I remain in awe at how powerful analyst calls are over stocks – seeing multi billion companies sway 5-7%+ due to one singular person opining boggles me, but I suppose it's part of the herd mentality. This morning "the firm" (go muppets) upgraded LinkedIn (LNKD) with a huge price target increase. It is interesting timing as the stock broke down below recent support yesterday morning - nicely cleaning out tight stop losses – before reversing strongly into the close in late afternoon trading. In retrospect it is easy to see why… or more important "whom"… that happened. Ah, Wall Street… …
Mar20
On the back of "you know who" stock, the NASDAQ has reversed sharply this afternoon and sits almost at unchanged. While the Russell 2000 is lagging it is well off the lows of the days. "You know who" is at 52 week highs and I guess here we go to tack on the next $100; it did the last $100 in the relative snap of a finger.
Again, until "you know who" stock weakens, this market will have a difficult time sustaining any move down.
Mar20
Obviously this market was extremely overheated an needed an excuse to come in a bit. Today's reason is "China slowing" – even though there is no surprise there, just 2 weeks ago when China downgraded its target of GDP growth from 8% to 7.5% certain stocks sold off on the news in serious fashion. Then the past week and half those same stocks have rocketed. And today they are being hit hard - you know the names and sectors by now. …
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