A Conversation with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor

It has been just over a year since the last conversation with Andrew Horowitz and his weekly podcast, so we just had our return engagement at the end of last week (right before the big Friday drop).   Most of the focus was on the market that just won't quit, the constant rotation, the lack of correction, the divergences that have yet to matter and the like.   Feel free to…

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Tuesdays with Benjamin

This chart sums it up – the market has been all about Tuesdays since mid January.  Flat otherwise.   What is peculiar is that while some of us were talking about this pattern 6-7 weeks ago, it has in the last few weeks become obvious to everyone – yet still continues.  That's not how it used to work…once something becomes obvious on Wall Street it traditionally fails quite quickly….

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SPX Reaching Historical Extremes on Weekly/Monthly Chart

We are starting to see some very extreme readings on our monthly and weekly index charts since there has been no correction this year.  I posted below first the monthly chart of the S&P 500 going back 15 years showing bollinger bands – rarely do we get above the upper monthly one, and never have we been this far above during this time frame.  Then below that I posted…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Mar30

Oh the dreaded Friday afternoon press release – the place companies go to tell you things they hope you will forget by Monday!  Groupon (GRPN) just dropped a nice anvil on investors with a restatement of the previous quarter by 4 cents lower and cites material weakness in its accounting.  While this doesn't affect current quarter estimates it's one of those trust issues.  This company already had a ton of push-pull with the SEC in their offering documents on how they wanted to report their financials.  Looks like they are still working on it.

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Mar30

An interesting session despite the mixed and "quiet" tape.  The S&P 500 regained that 1404 level that was a weekly high from 2008, and sits over the 1405 10 day moving average.  But most of the leaders of the past few months were non participants today.  Can't remember how few times the NASDAQ was lagging the DJIA this quarter.

The last day of the quarter was fitting on how things have gone for most of the past 2 months – big caps led, small caps lagged: +0.37% SP 500 v -0.23% Russell 2000 – a 0.6% variance among the two, something we saw over and over throughout February and March.

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Mar30

I have to say I was quite shocked by the performance of Red Hat (RHT) yesterday, up some 20% on a small earnings beat and modest increase in guidance in the conference call.  Perhaps it was the dearth of names for speculators to daytrade yesterday plus some form of short covering but the performance did not make much sense in relation to the results.  Either way, Red Hat is apparently now a "cloud computing" play and it took the entire group up with it.  Quite a few names now associated with this sector, I'd mark as suspicious in terms they are not really cloud plays but it is what it is.  Tibco Software (TIBX) was one of the names that was run up sharply along side Red Hat yesterday, in anticipation of its earning report last evening.   Much like Red Hat, a decent beat and ok guidance but the reactions are polar opposites.

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Mar30

Often one wonders how this market would fare if Apple (AAPL) was not joining the party – today is a good example.  The stock has been weak from the get go, and is now down 2% taking the NASDAQ down with it to the tune of -0.5%.  That stands in sharp contrast to the DJIA (no Apple inside) which is slightly up.  The S&P 500 which was green to start the day has reversed slightly in the red as well, with its 4.4% weighting in the stock.  Not sure why small caps are being hit so hard other than 'risk off' when Apple turns off I guess.

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Mar30

As I mentioned yesterday, we had a reversal in the latter portion of the day just as we saw on Wednesday, but the pattern was more powerful on Thursday.  This is leading to a 'risk on' Friday to close on Q1, but we'll see – as always – how they close 'em.  Thus far in 2012, when in doubt, it always falls in the bulls favor.  

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