60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Apr25

Quite a stark change of events – yesterday the Dow was the leader with IBM's stock buyback, Caterpillar's strength, along with the moves up in the telecom giants…while the NASDAQ stunk on the back of Apple.  Today the laggard is the leader, and vice versa.  This morning Caterpillar (CAT) reported, and it's a rare negative reaction as some worries about China are creeping in.   The actual report was quite good – but these are forward looking worries.  Ironically, the company is citing strength in North America to offset weakness in China and Brazil.  That's a switcheroo!  For all the focus on China, it was interesting to note that China only represents 3% of current sales.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr25

The volatility of late reminds one of latter 2011 and periods of 2010, 2009, and 2008.  I mentioned this area of 'white noise' between 1370 to 1390.  We can even expand that down 10 points to 1360ish as the market has bottomed at the high 1350s twice in the month of April.  Since last Thursday we have traveled the entire length of that range down (thru Monday morning) and now all the way back up.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr25

Apple's earnings are obviously lending a hand to almost every asset on earth today – only Apple can fix Spain, at least for a day.  All of yesterday's wretched PMI numbers globally are but a memory as long as China gobbles up iPhones.  What is bemusing is watching stocks like Chipotle and Priceline ramp off of Apple, which happened in after hours yesterday – as if there is any business relation.  However they are all part of the growth stock class so they tend to move together, and you can't argue with computer programs in this day and age.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr24

Some winning action in after hours as well, albeit relatively modest with a 2% gain, can be found in Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) corner.   The company just reported a $96M quarter with $.61 EPS (non GAAP), compared to expectations of $90.3M and $0.52.  Showing how difficult of a quarter that is, normally a 9 cent beat like that would offer a stock far more than this less than sizzling pop after hours.  Sales growth for QCOR's primary drug, Acthar, continue off the charts, versus the $36.8M a year ago.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr24

This was one of the 2-3 roughest day of the year for the high growth stocks, and thus far it's not better in after hours as everyone waits on Apple.  Baidu (BIDU) just reported EPS of $0.87 which a bit above estimates of $0.85, but revenue was a tiny bit short at $677M vs $679M expected.  Probably the larger issue is guidance of Q2 at $847-867M vs expectations of $860M.   The growth continues to be very good (+75% revenue growth), but when I use the term "not impressive" it simply means in relation to estimates.  Also Q2 guidance "only" shows 60%ish type of growth – numbers most companies would of course die for.  It's all relative.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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