60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Apr20

It's been an interesting and volatile week – with yesterday's action taking the cake in terms of bipolar action.  I didn't go back to count the points intraday but the swings had to lead to over 60 S&P points worth of movement.

+6, -9, +11…and that was in the first 75 minutes of the day.

Even within this recent downtrend/sideways action it's not been an easy path for bears – this week we've opened up 4 of the 5 sessions, including today, despite some weak closes the previous day.  In fact Tuesday's "rip your face off" rally came after a weak close, very near the lows Monday.  One who enjoys black helicopters might make a note of this. :)

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Apr19

I wrote a piece earlier today saying we were in the middle of the "white noise" range of 1370ish to 1390ish.  Just 15 minutes later we were at the top of that range around 1390, on the S&P 500.  Now half a day later we are at the bottom of that range at 1370ish… well just hit that level.  Very wicked range and not the type of volatility one wants to have a ton of exposure to.

The main general, Apple, continues to take body blows after that huge oversold rally Tuesday.

It still seems like a bear flag is forming at this time.  This week's lows of 1365 and last week's lows of 1357 are the next key levels if 1370 goes.  And of course below 1370 we won't be in the "white noise" area anymore.

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Apr19

Hedge fund manager Doug Kass seems to be turning more bearish "up here" – today on TheStreet.com he lists 12 events that could "crater" the stock market.  Below are a few I'd like to highlight

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Apr19

Can't write the headlines fast enough – over on Yahoo it says "Market Down Due to Economic Data" … hah.   That's 15 minutes old!

We've seen the S&P 500 reverse hard off the morning lows around 1380 to revisit 1390.  The twitterverse says IMF comments about "Spain not needing a rescue" are the reason.  Seems silly since Lehman said that, Bear Stearns said that, AIG said that, Greece said that, Ireland said that, and Portugal said that.  But it's just the same old same old of the past 3-4 years.

Last post I said we are in the middle of the white noise area – now we are back at the top.  Positive to see the NASDAQ rally without Apple.

The highs of the previous two days have been 1393 and 1391; thus far today it's been 1390 so some resistance here this week.  Bigger picture it's just a very volatile environment more similar to latter 2011 then the relative calm of the first 3 months of 2012.

EDIT 12:30 PM – sea sick much? Back down 10 S&P points to the 1380s… sheesh.

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Apr19

Following on this morning's theme, we had a batch of data at 10 AM and none of it was that positive.  The market reversed pretty sharply but is stabilizing a bit now.

  1. Index of Leading Indicators +0.3% vs 0.7% in February
  2. Philly Fed 8.5 vs 12.5 in March
  3. Existing Home Sales 4.48M vs 4.6M in February

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