60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Apr13

Ok not quite that long , it only seems that way.  But I mentioned earlier this week I was uncomfortable in the fact that some of the "hideout" stocks were not being hit even as the rest of the market was being crushed.  Well today they are coming after teflon stock #1.  Ahead of earnings no less.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr13

Market participants have been struck with the consistency of a type of rally the past 3-4 years, that is the "V" shaped rally.  Once a rarity it has become the rule.  No one is sure exactly why it is – perhaps momentum based, computer driven, liquidity fed environments are the culprit but whatever the reason they are not something that happens one out of ten times, but now nine out of ten times.  A market that stops going down, turns on a dime, and furiously "V" shapes up without letting those left behind in.  So the question of the day across the land is, are we beginning to embark on another?

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr12

It's all relative and these numbers from China are finger to the wind [Aug 5, 2009: China's Provincial Growth Figures Far Overstates Vs National Figures] [Dec 7, 2010: Wikileaks - China's GDP Figures are "Man Made" ... Or at Least One Province's Are] but China's Q1 reported GDP is 8.1%.  A great figure all things considered but below the 8.4% expected and far below the 9% bandied about earlier today – which helped drive up the global cyclical stocks.  The 9% appears to be a mistake as it was a figure a Chinese economist stated was the goal for the year, not for the quarter… but once a rumor takes hold…

Retail sales were as expected at 14.8% growth and industrial output was up 11.9%.

Futures flipped from up a few to down 3.5 but we'll see if its all forgotten by tomorrow morning, as Europe and JPMorgan/Wells Fargo dominate.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr12

While there is a lot of hot air coming out of D.C. about deficit reduction there is almost zero action.  Even as the Democrat's massive 2009 multi year stimulus falls off the books, other programs have come in to supplant it, and spending is almost identical to where it was during the height of the crisis.  Half way through the fiscal year the deficit is down 6% but almost all of that is due to higher revenue.  Wherever you stand on this issue politically, or whatever the effects long term, there is no arguing that the massive federal deficit spending has sent a huge influx of money into the economy and supports GDP.  The house ATM mid decade has been replaced by the government ATM.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr12

While the market is down for the week it is now flat with the gap down open Monday morning.  Considering the news backdrop (we were down this morning premarket) that's a big win for bulls.   Even the QQQs have a chance for a 15th (!!) consecutive up week, if things continue.   Friday's lows were near 1393 which would "fill the gap" to the upside.

Yesterday's action was not that surprising – today's much more.  Especially with the action premarket.  Thought if we drifted back up it would take until early next week to reach these levels, but not in the bipolar "student body left" market.

Apparently, Monday and Tuesday were like a Bobby Ewing dream – they didn't happen.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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