60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Apr12

Tractor Supply (TSCO) is one of those names which is under the radar but having a very good year.  This is a play on the agricultural side of things and unlike a company like Deere (DE) which has struggled since January, IT IS *not* a global play – which in the current market, has been an advantage.

Tractor Supply Company operates retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. Its stores offer a selection of merchandise, including equine, pet, and animal products, such as items required for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, including lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; maintenance products for agricultural and rural use; and work/recreational clothing and footwear. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company and Del?s Farm Supply names, as well as a Website under the TractorSupply.com name. As of December 31, 2011, it operated 1,085 retail farm and ranch stores in 44 states. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr12

After falling to negative in premarket on weekly claims, the market is now up sharply with a lot of the pro cyclical stocks leading the charge (metals and global companies).  Those were the hardest hit of late.  While I was expecting dovish commentary out of lieutenant #1 Yellen last nite, it instead was some dovish commentary by lieutenant #2 NY Fed Prez Dudley which seems to be stoking markets.  (Along with hopes of good Chinese GDP tonight)  Nothing direct mind you, but the market is "reading between the lines" here on bearish commentary on the economy from the all important NY Fed head (this is where Geithner was once stationed).  Again it stinks that this entire market now is predicated on reading tea leaves from Fed officials, but this is what we're stuck with in a market drunk on liquidity injections.

The spasm upward we just had this morning now has the S&P 500 within sniffing distance of that long term trend line I mentioned this morning

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr12

As the unofficial mouthpiece of the Fed, the Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath is must read theater.  After Yellen's speech last night he says:

Against that backdrop, officials seem unlikely to want to veer from the low-rates-to-2014 forecast that the central bank has been making since January. At the same time, it appears unlikely that the Fed is anywhere near being prepared to launch additional easing efforts.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr12

(note: facetious financial website hyperbole intended)

Yesterday began the "obvious" oversold bounce.  By obvious I simply mean it was due after a pretty hectic selloff, but with the poor close Tuesday it was not necessarily obvious that it would begin in the overnight futures session.  A negative open yesterday would have created a low risk 'trade' – unfortunately the market did not give that opportunity.  This morning futures continue the bounce.  

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr11

Here is some detail from Gary Shilling's thoughts on the labor market and how it relates to his recession 2012 call.  Keep in mind, labor is a lagging or at best coincident indicator … not a leading one.  Hence the 'better data' of late does not have much bearing on what is coming down the road.  That said weekly claims are at 4 year lows, which is a positive.  And, a point I've made many times over the past few years is important to remember – more labor = higher costs.  So more hiring is not necessarily good for companies (or their profits) even if it is better for the economy.  At least in the short(er) run.

If you missed part 1 yesterday go here.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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