detour

SPX Reaching Historical Extremes on Weekly/Monthly Chart

We are starting to see some very extreme readings on our monthly and weekly index charts since there has been no correction this year.  I posted below first the monthly chart of the S&P 500 going back 15 years showing bollinger bands – rarely do we get above the upper monthly one, and never have we been this far above during this time frame.  Then below that I posted…

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cycle

There is a Rotation Afoot

After breaking a key support trend line that connected the lows of November, December, February and April the S&P 500 has pulled off yet another "V shaped" upward move similar to so many others since 2009.  The index finished at new closing highs yesterday and is now up 7 of 8 sessions as we enter an economic and central bank heavy portion of the calendar.  The fact it has…

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bonds

Equities Rally But So Do Bonds – What Gives?

Chris Burba (@ChrisBurbaCMT on twitter) just posted this interesting chart showing a major divergence between how bonds and stocks are acting.  Normally bonds will sell off as equities rally as we go into 'risk on' mode.  However this week even as equities rallied, bonds held quite steady and on a day like today are acting very strong.  Yields continue to fall.  Even as equities "honeybadger" their way up.  So…

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Paladinfunds290

Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Mar05

WSJ's Hilsenrath: Federal Reserve Taking a Break to Reassess

After raising the market's assumptions about a new round of quantitative easing for months, last week's Bernanke testimony – marked by a tremendous intraday reversal of gold and silver mid week – was the first hint that a massive new program may not be coming…. yet.  As the Federal Reserve now loves to telegraph everything to markets well in advance (after of course discussing things with a few 'select firms'), the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath is one of the main leakage points.  In this morning's WSJ he conveys the message that the Fed is watching and waiting – i.e. no imminent action.   …

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Mar05

Finally Some "Catch Up" in the Large Cap Indexes

I wrote last week that eventually this divergence between the small caps and large caps had to close.  Either the large caps came down to perform more like the small caps, or vice versa.  Today it is the former.  Finally with Apple taking a break, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are underperforming the Russell 2000.  We still don't have a -1% day on the year for the S&P 500 but at this moment the NASDAQ is testing that level.  Both have broken the 10 day moving average intraday (which they did about a month ago) but sit above the 20 day. …

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Mar05

ISM Non Manufacturing Good Result at 57.3 vs 56.1 Expectation

Good results out of ISM Non Manufacturing, which represents far more of the U.S. economy than the much more heralded ISM Manufacturing.  Not only did results come in above expectation but they improved from the prior month.  Markets didn't react immediately but we are seeing a modest bounce now off this morning's lows.  What we have to watch for now is when markets stop reacting to positive news… …

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Mar05

Euro Zone PMI Still in Contraction Mode as S&P 500 Flirts with 10 Day Moving Average

The current market can definitely be described as divergent.  Apple (AAPL) and its 10%+ weighting in the NASDAQ (and much larger weighting on the very popular QQQ ETF) is keeping that index in seventh heaven.  A host of larger caps seem to be keeping the DJIA and S&P 500 in good shape as well… even as the Russell 2000 has cleanly broken down below the 20 day.  We have been harping on this divergence for weeks and highlighted the break late last week – I see it in quite a few financial media outlets and the general stock market blogosphere today.  …

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Mar02

Almost 4:1 Divergence Between Russell 2000 and S&P 500 Today

I keep speaking about this divergence because it is quite amazing in (a) how long it has persisted and specifically to today (b) the ratio.  Usually we've seen about a 0.5 to 0.7% spread between the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 as they have been moving thru February.  Usually it's about a 2.5:1 ratio or maybe a bit more i.e. S&P 500 down 0.3%, Russell 2000 down 0.65+%.  As I type this the Russell 2000 is down 1.85% versus the S&P 500's 0.5% – that is almost 4 to 1.  A tale of two markets continues.  The S&P 500 is holding at its 10 day moving average where the dip buyers have had a buying orgy all year.

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