60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Apr05

With 30 minutes to go, the remarkable run in Powershares QQQ (QQQ) looks to continue.  It looked seriously threatened yesterday but with the surge in Apple (AAPL) today, a close above $67.55 will have the QQQ up 14 weeks in a row – i.e. the entire year.  Again, in the NASDAQ bubble of 1999 the longest run was 11 weeks.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr05

Stop me if you've heard this one before…

NASDAQ, under the leadership of a narrow range of big cap stocks, is leading the way today; up 0.3%.

Small caps taking a hit to the tune of 0.4%.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr05

Excluding a day like yesterday, which brought us back to the frustrating days of "everything must be sold" or "everything must be bought" (what I call student body left trading), 2012 has seen a big improvement in terms of lack of correlation.  This definitely brings some joy back in the market, as we have had so many periods since 2008 where it's been all about guessing the direction of the market as a whole, and less about picking individual equities.  WSJ Marketbeat brings us a chart showing how far correlations have dropped:

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr05

The market is acting much more tricky this week – even more so than the previous two.  After the FOMC meetings we saw the quick selloff, but stocks rallied sharply in the closing half hour to pare losses to very modest levels.  That looked bullish.  Of course, that was met with a big gap down yesterday morning.  Then yesterday the major indexes bounced off their 20 day moving averages (and the Russell 2000 off its 50 day) only to see selling in the futures market, and negative opens today.

While trying to fight back as I type, end of day strength is not leading to momentum the following day – another not so good sign.  A lot of yellow flags being raised.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr04

Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are flirting with their 20 day moving averages after falling below them; the same goes with the Russell 2000 in relation to its 50 day moving average.  That said I find it remarkable the S&P 500 is down only 1% as my watch lists don't look any different then they did a few hours ago.  Perhaps it is because the Russell is down almost 2%.   But it is definitely a day where the high beta names remind you how far they can go down in very short order.  Much like many of the days in latter 2011, stock picking is out the door as nearly everything is moving together.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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