60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Apr06

Futures are down quite significantly although markets are of course not open today.  The NFP number is surprising in light of weekly claims which are at 4 year lows and would indicate a number of 200Kish in terms of job growth.  But with prices this high in equities economic data cannot disappoint, and this is a disappointment versus expectation.  It will bring into question whether some of the strength the past few months has been based on the unseasonably warm weather.

From this seat there is way too much focus on a number that is revised multiple times and can be off by 50-100K+ once all it is said and done, but that's the construct of the modern market.  The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% but again that is due to the participation rate falling – which after a 1 month respite, once more dropped.

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Apr05

With 30 minutes to go, the remarkable run in Powershares QQQ (QQQ) looks to continue.  It looked seriously threatened yesterday but with the surge in Apple (AAPL) today, a close above $67.55 will have the QQQ up 14 weeks in a row – i.e. the entire year.  Again, in the NASDAQ bubble of 1999 the longest run was 11 weeks.

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Apr05

Stop me if you've heard this one before…

NASDAQ, under the leadership of a narrow range of big cap stocks, is leading the way today; up 0.3%.

Small caps taking a hit to the tune of 0.4%.

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Apr05

Excluding a day like yesterday, which brought us back to the frustrating days of "everything must be sold" or "everything must be bought" (what I call student body left trading), 2012 has seen a big improvement in terms of lack of correlation.  This definitely brings some joy back in the market, as we have had so many periods since 2008 where it's been all about guessing the direction of the market as a whole, and less about picking individual equities.  WSJ Marketbeat brings us a chart showing how far correlations have dropped:

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Apr05

The market is acting much more tricky this week – even more so than the previous two.  After the FOMC meetings we saw the quick selloff, but stocks rallied sharply in the closing half hour to pare losses to very modest levels.  That looked bullish.  Of course, that was met with a big gap down yesterday morning.  Then yesterday the major indexes bounced off their 20 day moving averages (and the Russell 2000 off its 50 day) only to see selling in the futures market, and negative opens today.

While trying to fight back as I type, end of day strength is not leading to momentum the following day – another not so good sign.  A lot of yellow flags being raised.

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