60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Apr04

Bond king Bill Gross is right along the same line of thinking as I am on this subject.  Unfortunately, moral hazard is now the name of the game, and rather than being dissipated, it has been enhanced.  To that end the top headline on CNBC is "Why Fed is likely to Intervene if Market Falls too far" – as if "stock market management" is part of their Congressional mandated duty.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr04

ISM Non Manufacturing came in a bit light at 56 but short of a blow out number like 60, I doubt it would have mattered.  Breadth is the worse I've seen it in 2012, by a long shot.  I have numerous watch lists, covering some 250-300 stocks or ETFs I'd reckon, and right now excluding the inverse ETFs, bond ETFs, and volatility ETFs there are 3 equities in the green on these lists.  That is quite amazing.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr04

Looks like people had time to think about the implications of the FOMC minutes – which again to me, said very little new and are OLDER than recent statements from Bernanke – and are not that happy.  I wrote this weekend in [Is it Really That Simple as Don't Fight the Fed]

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr03

Ok not literally (checks self for squid like characteristics) … but I am in terms of more easing.  It is quite simple.  To replace Operation Twist, something new needs to come in.  Otherwise in Bernanke's world it is tightening.  And he has said the economy still needs help.  Remember a week ago Monday?  The market has ADD and doesn't.  So if you have a policy out there, and it ends – you are constricting / tightening.  Not going to happen from this viewpoint.   Bernanke likes his job and Obama needs to be re-elected…. ironically (as Ben is a Republican).

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr03

…and the market class starts whining + selling immediately as there was a TINY increase in dovish sentiment.  The dollar spikes and everything priced in dollars must fall.

Please find them a pacifier.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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