60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Apr03

Apparently, Cisco's CEO Chambers was on Bloomberg and said government spending to "get tougher".  With thousands of computers scanning for words or apparently listening for them we had a quick flush down en masse, but now have stabilized a bit.  It is a pretty innocent statement and not surprising but you never know what little catalyst will move things – up or down.

The S&P 500 sits a tad yearly highs that it reached early last week and retested yesterday.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr03

As I wrote late last week the reaction to Red Hat's (RHT) earnings report (solid beat) and guidance (mild upgrade) by the market did not make much sense to me.  But surely the investment base is not complaining.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr03

This was a thesis I wrote about a few years ago on FMMF, and now the data continues to confirm it – in the "new normal" era where many people "bought" houses with little to nothing down – if not a 100%+ LTV loan – having no skin in the game has led to a new generation of Americans who put paying off the mortgage lower on the totem pole than credit cards or auto loans.  [Apr 1, 2011:  Consumers Continue Trend of Paying Credit Cards Before Mortgages]  Obviously the no skin in the game aspect is just one reason – an eventual default on your mortgage now often takes years to come to fruition – during which time one can live 'rent free' and build up savings.  And ironically pay off the credit cards.  Contrast that to the harassing phone calls that come much more quickly in the process if one becomes late on credit cards or auto loans.  Not to mention the fact repossessing a car is a much quicker process than repossing a home.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr02

Late Friday I wrote:

On the positive side it was nice to see stocks as a group have the ability to stay upright without a certain group of the same 10-20 stocks leading.  We'll see if this is day 1 of a rotation into laggard groups of Q1, or a warning shot.   Energy stocks continue to act strange – despite high oil they don't act well.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Apr02

Some quick data via CNBC on what happens after at least a 8% gain in Q1 since 1950. There have been 13 instances since 1950.  In all but the crash year of 1987, the market ended higher for the year from where it ended in March.   Obviously the pace tends to moderate. :)

Even in 87, the market ended the year in positive territory, despite giving back most of the Q1 gain.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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