Market Montage

Probably the strongest market I've seen in a few years – the only similar move I can think of was the QE2 move of Sep 2010 thru Feb 2011.  Nothing slows it down.  It is a pretty exasperating experience to try to hedge anything.  Everyone is a genius now; it's a market to just buy anything and never sell, stop out (because it's just going to bounce right back!), or hedge.  I guess no 1% drops are going to be allowed.

If it were just me it would be one thing, but a lot of people I read or follow are in similar shaking head mode.

We're now making a run at the 1355 high yesterday before Apple imploded.

Depending on how much you think retail purchases of the market are a contrary indicator this could be an important data point.   The last time mutual funds saw such inflows was the week of April 20th, 2011.  Within a week the market essentially topped for the year.  Of course history need not repeat, but it is something to be aware of. …

There are a lot of stocks out there taking 4, 5, 6% type of losses but the indexes are hiding it pretty well.  The S&P 500 fell to lows seen late yesterday afternoon before that mystery buyer came in heavy to spike the market, and has of course bounced off that level today (what else is new).  Essentially this is the 10 day moving average that buyers keep defending.  While this is a minor loss in the index, breadth stunk yesterday (2:1 negative) and I'd assume from my watch lists can't be much better today.  A break of these lows around 1340-1341 would be something to change character…that Apple reversal is also not something to brush off.

Until dip buyers get punished they will continue doing their thing but it's not the 'easy tape' it was a month ago.  Have seen a lot of ugly reversals both yesterday and today.

Still not *one* 1% drop in 2012 on the S&P 500.