Market Montage
Stock Market, Economics, Equity Analysis
Feb15
There are a lot of stocks out there taking 4, 5, 6% type of losses but the indexes are hiding it pretty well. The S&P 500 fell to lows seen late yesterday afternoon before that mystery buyer came in heavy to spike the market, and has of course bounced off that level today (what else is new). Essentially this is the 10 day moving average that buyers keep defending. While this is a minor loss in the index, breadth stunk yesterday (2:1 negative) and I'd assume from my watch lists can't be much better today. A break of these lows around 1340-1341 would be something to change character…that Apple reversal is also not something to brush off.
Until dip buyers get punished they will continue doing their thing but it's not the 'easy tape' it was a month ago. Have seen a lot of ugly reversals both yesterday and today.
Still not *one* 1% drop in 2012 on the S&P 500.
Feb15
A blast from the past, now sort of funny in retrospect. Those under the age of 25 will get a serious kick out of this…
Feb15
Business Insider has a slideshow from last night's webcast from Doubleline's Jeffrey Gundlach, and let's just say he is somewhat bearish very long term. Of course it doesn't mean one darn thing to the markets near or intermediate term. Follow the link for the presentation, as always he does a great job of illustrating what might get lost in a jumble of words otherwise. (We've touched on many of these themes since 2007 from the first part of the presentation – food stamp use explosion, huge drop off in labor force participation, central bank balance sheets, pay in public sector v private, etc) …
Feb15
Generally you think of a short term market top in terms of an index going parabolic. But in this case it may be Apple (AAPL)… which is so influential on the NASDAQ along with a bevy of ETFs. The stock now has a RSI of 90+ (!) and has completely detached from any relationship with either the 10 or 20 day moving average. It is looking a bit like silver did last summer (I believe it was) before it reversed. But right now any betting against it are being taken out in body bags.
It would be a bit less remarkable if this was a $20B company, or $50B but this is the largest company in the index – amazing stuff.
EDIT 12:45 PM – from the time I created the chart, Apple has now quickly dropped about $15
Feb15
It has been a mixed bag out of the agricultural space these past few months. Many of the equipment makers have soared, while the fertilizer group has been more hit and miss. Deere & Company falls into the former camp, and while it has been 'resting' of late, consolidating a big move in the early weeks of 2012, it is one of the "go to" cyclical names for institutional money to pile into when the time is right. Deere announced a solid earnings beat this morning but like many companies expectations have been tepid. The year over year earnings growth was only 4%. …
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