60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Mar28

Today was quite tricky.  After yesterday's yucky close, buyers came in early as their Pavlov nature has now taught them as the dips of 2012 have been short and sweet.  Usually a close as we had yesterday leads to a bad morning, but a lot of old rules have been thrown out of late.  After the thought of "here we go again" ("it's just going to go straight up isn't it?") permeated, only then did the first wave of selling happen.  But of course it excluded most of the QQQ cabal.  Which again led to the "here we go again" thought process – i.e. the Q's will lead everything else higher.  However, in a change of pattern the QQQ ETF actually followed the rest of the market down on the second, larger wave of selling.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar28

Monday morning the market gapped up on Bernanke's speech.  The high on the SPY ETF Friday was 139.81.  That flush down the index just experienced took SPY down to 139.73.  Hence, the "Bernanke Gap" just filled.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar28

The action in Powershares QQQ (QQQ) continues.  This is the ETF that has been up 12 weeks in a row, and is working on #13.  Recall I mentioned a few days ago that even in the bubble that was NASDAQ 1999, QQQ only had a streak of 11 weeks in a row.  So this is quite unprecedented action.  Today is a great example – we had a small selloff after the initial morning pop and while a slew of sectors got hit, QQQ never even went back to flat, not to mention negative.   Apparently big cap technology is immune from the global cycle. :)

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar28

The latest monthly missive from PIMCO's Bill Gross can be found here.  Unlike most of his writings there is not some far flung story that he goes into to introduce his theme, so it's straight to the opinions.  Gross calls this a financially repressive environment:

"The best way to visualize successful delivering is to recognize that investors are locked up in a financially repressive environment that reduces future returns for all financial assets.  Breaking out of that 'jail' is what I call the Great Escape."

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar27

I don't think there is much more Bernanke can say tonight after his performance Monday morning, but this market is excellent at ramping up on the exact same news countless times ("Greece is saved v18.0").   I am unclear why Barbara Walters is not doing the interview – that way she can ask Ben not only what color the shoots are, but what kind of tree he is.  (no brainer).

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke sat down with ABC News' Diane Sawyer Tuesday to discuss the state of the U.S. economy and the challenges we still face on the road to recovery. Bernanke and Sawyer spoke on a wide range of issues including gas prices, the housing market and where the national unemployment rate is heading.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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