Market Montage

Ummm… for those playing along at home, yes the S&P 500 bounced off that 10 day moving average.  After spending 30 minutes below it, Pavlov and his dogs could not resist.  Once more they are rewarded.  Usually the market does not reward the same behavior repeatedly like this, but as with the lack of volume, I guess a lot of the old rules are not applying.

The market continues to grind out gains, at least on the larger indexes, with no quit in it.    Futures are down about half a percent… another 0.2% lower and it would be the biggest loss of the year (!).  I'll show the S&P 500 chart below but the DJIA and NASDAQ are generally in the 'same vicinity'.  I keep speaking about how this market is essentially unshortable until we see at least a break of the 20 day moving average; this market is so teflon on the larger indexes it is rare to even see a break of the 10 day moving average.  (as an aside 1355ish i.e. the 10 day moving average, is where futures dipped to overnight before bouncing) …

In all the old school technical analysis screed, volume should accompany price movement.  Especially to the upside.  However anyone subscribing to that view will be absent in this year's rally and indeed much of the rally of the past few years.  We have a new paradigm market where volume can whither, yet prices can continue to levitate.  Another reason many mistrust the market nowadays – that simply is not how it used to work for decades on end. …