60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Mar23

Ummm… wow.  In case you have not been following the saga of this VIX related product, it's been an interesting few days.  After yesterday's plunge of nearly 30% (on a day VIX itself rose), the VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX) opened today down another 20% or so.  This is a pretty shameful reflection on the ETF market in my view; and it's not the first time we've seen such a dislocation in the ETF sphere the past 3-4 years. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar23

Nike (NKE) has not been a barn burner of late, but continues a slow and steady path upward and the business continues to be a leader within its niche.  I've often called Apple the Nike of computers/gadgets as both are able to charge a premium for what is in essence a commodity business – the brands mean a ton.  The company reported earnings last night and steady as she goes with 14% revenue growth and net income growth of 7%.  Margins have been pressured – down 2% in the quarter on gross, which is similar to the previous quarter (-2.6%).  This is definitely an issue, but the market has been kind in overlooking it at this point.  The company also announced a small buyback of 2.5M shares for under $250M (keep in mind this is a $50B market cap).

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar22

This was actually a theme of mine a few years ago with mixed results.  But for whatever reason the demand for guns is soaring to the point some manufacturers cannot keep up with demand.  I am trying to wrap my mind around the reasoning for this…

Shares of Sturm, Ruger & Co. jumped about 10% early Thursday, the morning after the firearms manufacturer stopped taking new orders due to overwhelming demand. In the first quarter of 2012, Ruger said that it has gotten orders for more than one million units. And despite "efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders." The company said that it expects to "resume the normal acceptance of orders by the end of May."

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar22

Dish Networks (DISH) surged out of the gate this morning, but has given back a good portion of those gains as the market has degraded.  However, there was good news from the FCC in this name in relation to their proposed wireless plans.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar22

Lululemon (LULU) reported this morning, and while their was an initial downward move (along with the rest of the market) as guidance was mixed – usually a nono for high beta, momentum stocks – almost no one has been hurt buying an earnings related dip in 2012, so people (and computers) of course rushed in as the stock fell to the 20 day moving average.  The stock is already back to nearly unchanged as I type this.  Par for the course in 2012.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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