60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Mar20

On the back of "you know who" stock, the NASDAQ has reversed sharply this afternoon and sits almost at unchanged.  While the Russell 2000 is lagging it is well off the lows of the days.  "You know who" is at 52 week highs and I guess here we go to tack on the next $100; it did the last $100 in the relative snap of a finger.

Again, until "you know who" stock weakens, this market will have a difficult time sustaining any move down.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar20

Obviously this market was extremely overheated an needed an excuse to come in a bit.  Today's reason is "China slowing" – even though there is no surprise there, just 2 weeks ago when China downgraded its target of GDP growth from 8% to 7.5% certain stocks sold off on the news in serious fashion.  Then the past week and half those same stocks have rocketed.  And today they are being hit hard - you know the names and sectors by now. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar20

Tiffany & Co (TIF) has spend much of 2012 in the penalty box after a holiday quarter that did not impress.  The company reported this morning and while the results were "ok" (small miss on EPS), guidance is helping to stoke the stock in the premarket, which is up some 4%.  The company's comments about the upper end customer are always interesting, and one can see why Bernanke is so focused on the 'wealth effect' as that hits Tiffany's core customer base.  That said, a few other companies who have the same demographic did not blame the volatile market of late 2011 when they reported last quarter.  Perhaps Gingrich was just too busy campaigning to help stoke sales last holiday season. ;)

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar19

While you can always agree or disagree with any particular pundit, it is worthwhile to examine the views of those who actually construct a decent group of parameters for their thoughts.  That said, the market can make all logic seem foolish for a time, even that which is ultimately correct.  Hedge fund manager Doug Kass, who was quite bullish at year end 2011 with an excellent call on 2012 being the year of financials, has recently turned much more cautious.  Today he has a piece out saying flatly the market is now overvalued.  While one might dismiss it as 'chicken little', recall that 3 months ago almost no one wanted to buy the market citing a litany of (valid) reasons at today everyone wants in the market – at any prices.  Reasons to be out, be damned. :)

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar19

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) usually is a "go to" name in March as this chain seems to be in the sweet spot for the NCAA basketball tournament crowd.  Unfortunately, last Friday an analyst raised the notion of higher than average chicken wing prices cutting into profits this quarter, which has pushed the stock into the penalty box the past few days. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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