60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

Read More

WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

Read More

The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

Read More

Mar19

While the moves since last Tuesday's surge have been modest each day there is absolutely no pull in, on a daily basis here.  Incredibly strong markets run along their 10 or 20 day moving day averages.  That is how this market worked for much of the move the past few months.  But since last Tuesday's burst there is not even a pull back to the 10 day.  The S&P 500 is 2% over even that moving average….

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Mar19

To no one's surprise, Apple (AAPL) announced a dividend today - relatively measly at $2.65 per quarter, or under $11 a year.   On a $600 stock that is a 1.8% yield.   Also, starting in September 2012 the company announced a $10B share repurchase (over 3 years) - again measly and without having the data in front of me, probably just sops up a bunch of their yearly option exercisements.

….“with the primary objective of neutralizing the impact of dilution from future employee equity grants and employee stock purchase programs.”

Overall this will use $45B worth of cash over the next 3 years – in aggregate a huge number of course but of course in 3 years the company will have tons more cash than it has today.

The stock was back up to $600ish in premarket after 'stumbling' for a few days late last week, but as I type is down to mid $580s.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Mar19

The market put in another solid week, with Tuesday (FOMC + JPMorgan dividend) dominating the action.  The small break of support (20 day) on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ two Tuesdays ago, which seemed to be the first chance of any sort of correction this year, was quickly put to rest with a rumor of sterlized quantitative easing floated in the WSJ the very next morning.  And since then there has been no looking back.  At this point talking of 'corrections' and even 'pullbacks' makes one look foolish – which usually is a good sign there is one around the corner.  But as readers know, we no longer work in normal markets but ones flooded with central banking "not so invisible" hands. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Mar16

Today is an excellent example of why the senior indexes won't quit even as a lot of stocks pullback and semi-correct.  Monday we had utilites / dividend / safety stocks run.  Tuesday it was "everything", but led by financials post FOMC meeting and especially consumer related (housing, retail).   The same two groups dominated Wednesday, but pro growth cyclical industrials kicked in.  REITs were also hot in the first half of the week.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More

Mar16

PIMCO's Bill Gross joined Dan Gross on Yahoo Tech Ticker to discuss a host of bond related and economic views.  Much like myself, he sees another round of QE (sterlized or otherwise) – in fact he takes it another step further and says there is a good chance of QE4 as well. :)

Another round (or two) of quantitative easing from the Federal  Reserve, muted growth and an end to the 30-year bull run in government  bonds. That's what Bill Gross,  one of the largest bond investors in the world, sees for the U.S.  economy in the coming year.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

Read More