Market Montage
Stock Market, Economics, Equity Analysis
Feb01
One strange situation for U.S investors has been the dearth of U.S. listed Indian stocks. Outside of the business/IT outsourcers, there are really only a handful of names of any material market capitalization. Contrast this with the boatloads of Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges. At this point there are almost as many Indian ETFs ( 10!) as there are individual equities, although many of these ETFs have little in assets or daily volume. …
Feb01
Some excerpts from PIMCO's Mr. Gross for the month of February in which he details a major potential risk of the "zero bound" in rates; for full letter go here.
- Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside.
- Most short to intermediate Treasury yields are dangerously close to the zero-bound which imply limited potential room, if any, for price appreciation.
- We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration.
Feb01
ISM Manufacturing slightly below expectation but not affecting the markets much. Of the sub indexes, new orders was up 1, employment down 0.5, while prices surged 8. Last one is certainly interesting,
Feb01
While the ADP figures is rarely anywhere near the actual government figure that is reported 2 days later, it does help to shape expectations to a degree. Today's 170,000 job growth for January is exactly in line with expectations so it should not affect Friday's expectation of 125,000 very much. Recall, December's unemployment data included about 40,000 workers in the "courier" business (i.e. UPS, Fedex) which many expect to reverse in this month's numbers – hence the major variance between the 2 numbers. (of course ADP is only private payrolls while the government report includes…. well, government work). …
Feb01
Overseas markets, especially of the European kind, are acting very well this morning on the back of global purchasing managers indexes, which are mixed but continue to clear a very low bar.
First, over in China we had a mixed bag between the private HSBC PMI data and the 'official' government data. To be frank, I am not sure what we are even rooting for at this point – weaker data = more stimulus or stronger data: …
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