60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Mar13

As expected not much has changed in this month's statement – the Fed says any inflation you say see is going to go away soon enough (so no worries).  Europe improved a bit, housing remains in 'depression', etc etc.   One dissent.  Expectations seem to be building for Operation Twist to be replaced by "sterilized QE" – announced either in April or June.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar13

Interesting interview here with Goldman's Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin – despite a market that refuses to relent he has quite a bearish bent on both the economy and the markets, calling for a year end target of ….S&P 1250.   This really stands out as most Wall Street strategists tend to bend to the rose colored glasses side.

He cites 3 main trends, the first two more economic focused but the last pointing to earnings which I think will be the key.  Earnings growth has slowed substantially and 2012 forecasts are extremely back end loaded, meaning to reach growth estimates there is going to have to be a big reacceleration in latter 2012.  This during a time of political uncertainty and more important policy uncertainty as massive U.S. tax breaks come back into focus.  Analysts who are bottom lining estimates must be counting on a Chinese economy that returns to burning and Europe coming out of "flat to recession"…. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar13

The nearly non stop run of 2012 looks to continue this morning.  Yesterday's volume was the lowest for a non holiday week in years according to Bloomberg, but in the end all that matters is price.  V shaped low volume rallies have now become the norm rather than the exception post 2008.   I don't see a particular reason for the gap up, but I suppose we don't really need reasons.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar12

It's been about 2 years since I last had a sit down chat with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor blog.  We spoke late Friday about the markets, the economy, the "Fed/global central banker put", and trying to invest in a world where moral hazard is now the status quo rather than the exception.  Feel free to listen in (audio link is about 2/3rds down the page), but be warned we both speak at 1.33x the rate of a normal person so you might need to slow down the output of your computer speakers.

For those on iTunes you can go here.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar12

I can't think of a bigger impact product in the past decade in the beverage industry outside of of "Energy drinks".  While there are multiple brands in this category, certainly the one of the 2 most ubiquitous is Monster Energy, which for many is like Xerox or Kleenex – a brand that defines a product. (Red Bull being the other)  Bloomberg takes a look at the company, and it's potential as a takeover candidate, despite a huge run in the stock the past few years.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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