60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Mar13

Interesting timing here…

Within an hour of a Fed announcement, JPMorgan (JPM) comes out of the blue with a $15B stock buyback (and 5 cent dividend increase).  Some days you think this is all orchestrated…

The share buyback is more of a headline grabber as it seems much of it will simply be to offset employee grants – but it got the market revved up.

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Mar13

As expected not much has changed in this month's statement – the Fed says any inflation you say see is going to go away soon enough (so no worries).  Europe improved a bit, housing remains in 'depression', etc etc.   One dissent.  Expectations seem to be building for Operation Twist to be replaced by "sterilized QE" – announced either in April or June.

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Mar13

Interesting interview here with Goldman's Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin – despite a market that refuses to relent he has quite a bearish bent on both the economy and the markets, calling for a year end target of ….S&P 1250.   This really stands out as most Wall Street strategists tend to bend to the rose colored glasses side.

He cites 3 main trends, the first two more economic focused but the last pointing to earnings which I think will be the key.  Earnings growth has slowed substantially and 2012 forecasts are extremely back end loaded, meaning to reach growth estimates there is going to have to be a big reacceleration in latter 2012.  This during a time of political uncertainty and more important policy uncertainty as massive U.S. tax breaks come back into focus.  Analysts who are bottom lining estimates must be counting on a Chinese economy that returns to burning and Europe coming out of "flat to recession"…. 

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Mar13

The nearly non stop run of 2012 looks to continue this morning.  Yesterday's volume was the lowest for a non holiday week in years according to Bloomberg, but in the end all that matters is price.  V shaped low volume rallies have now become the norm rather than the exception post 2008.   I don't see a particular reason for the gap up, but I suppose we don't really need reasons.  

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Mar12

It's been about 2 years since I last had a sit down chat with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor blog.  We spoke late Friday about the markets, the economy, the "Fed/global central banker put", and trying to invest in a world where moral hazard is now the status quo rather than the exception.  Feel free to listen in (audio link is about 2/3rds down the page), but be warned we both speak at 1.33x the rate of a normal person so you might need to slow down the output of your computer speakers.

For those on iTunes you can go here.

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