60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Mar07

On my prior blog site I used a term in 2007/2008 – "The Pooring of America".   This was in part a comment on what I saw as the great global wage arbitrage happening in the middle class.  Those in developed countries would see wages pressured downward, while those in developing countries would see their wages pushed upward.  They need not "cross" at any point, since cost of living varies substantially in these countries.  This is a simple take away from economics 101 – when you introduce a few hundred billion new potential labor candidates the "price" of labor will generally fall.  (which of course is great for multinational corporations)

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar07

Before the main part of the piece ADP payroll came in at 216,000 versus expectations of … 203,000.  Nothing out of line there.

Some biting words from the always blunt Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed.  With talk like this one wonders how Fisher keeps his job.  Of course QE1 was offered to the markets/economy when the country was in crisis – many argue now it was reasonable.  QE2?  There was some summer weakness in 2010 and markets were jittery post flash crash and tough summer…. but good enough for "crisis action"?  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar06

The problem with such a run without rest is once the trend breaks we have big air pockets in the charts.   I've been waiting for the 20 day moving averages to break on the NASDAQ and S&P 500, which finally happened today – but now it's no man's land as we have gaping chasms between the 20 day and 50 day moving averages. 

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar06

This market (and corporate profits for that matter!) is in some ways bifurcated in the have (Apple) and have nots.  This story in the WSJ takes a look at the % of growth (large cap) fund managers who own Apple, and the answer is essentially "almost everyone".  And not just as a piddly 1% or 2% weighting, almost all these funds (many of which are closet indexers) have it as a 4-5% weighting.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar06

When I mention breadth, I am biased by my watch lists.  The general market breadth will have many consumer staples, utilities and other such defensive areas so will be different than the universe I am looking at which is more "growthy" and "high beta" in general.

I have multiple watch lists but my main one which are of most interest is about 80 stocks at any one time.  There are currently 2 of those 80 positive: Groupon (GRPN), Amazon.com (AMZN).  That's a horror show in terms of breadth

Apple (AAPL) is again holding up this puppy as dip buyers came in yet again to fill this morning's gap down (mission accomplished) … Pavlovian response.  But now that this gap is filled….

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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