60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Mar06

Thought this post from last week was worth reposting today.  Today is the first significant sign of weakness on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ as both finally broke their 20 day moving averages.  And under the surface the indexes are looking far better than a lot of individual names, some of which are being obliterated today.  Tactically it is a 'change' day, as you had to continue to respect the bulls' ability to finding a way to progress as long as they could hold even the weakest of moving averages.  If we use Fibonacci retracements we see there is the potential for a substantial amount more of downside to go even if it is not in a straight line.   Today there is talk of 'buying the dip' – usually these shakeouts end when there is a real scare and buying the dip is not such a fashionable idea.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar06

Looks like we are going to see the market's first significant gap down of the year this morning – no specific reason, it is just "due".  There have been any number of bears who have been turned to the bull camp in the past 2-3 weeks, but one guy consistently bullish has been well known pundit Laszlo Birinyi, who came out with a S&P 1700 call yesterday on CNBC.  It would be easy to say "hey that was an obvious 'call the top' moment" but there have been any number of similar signals (Roubini bullish, uber bullish Barron cover, etc) over the last month which have led to only more pain for bears.   Either way it's always good to see the 'other side' of the argument so below is the video:

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar05

After raising the market's assumptions about a new round of quantitative easing for months, last week's Bernanke testimony – marked by a tremendous intraday reversal of gold and silver mid week – was the first hint that a massive new program may not be coming…. yet.  As the Federal Reserve now loves to telegraph everything to markets well in advance (after of course discussing things with a few 'select firms'), the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath is one of the main leakage points.  In this morning's WSJ he conveys the message that the Fed is watching and waiting – i.e. no imminent action.  

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar05

I wrote last week that eventually this divergence between the small caps and large caps had to close.  Either the large caps came down to perform more like the small caps, or vice versa.  Today it is the former.  Finally with Apple taking a break, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are underperforming the Russell 2000.  We still don't have a -1% day on the year for the S&P 500 but at this moment the NASDAQ is testing that level.  Both have broken the 10 day moving average intraday (which they did about a month ago) but sit above the 20 day.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Mar05

Good results out of ISM Non Manufacturing, which represents far more of the U.S. economy than the much more heralded ISM Manufacturing.  Not only did results come in above expectation but they improved from the prior month.  Markets didn't react immediately but we are seeing a modest bounce now off this morning's lows.  What we have to watch for now is when markets stop reacting to positive news…

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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