Stock Market, Economics, Equity Analysis
May20
Again, not much to add to this market in terms of analysis – nothing matters other than central banks. Last Wednesday/Thursday there were some 9 economic reports, 7 of which were disappointing or could be considered as such and all it got was one rare day down, and then new highs Friday. Markets are up 10 of the past 12 sessions and 17 of 21. Friday's move to 1666 was an exact 1000 point rally from March 2009's 666 bottom. Since this most recent leg of the move has been medium fast rather than a huge spike ala 1999, things are not necessarily overbought on the daily chart but we are seeing extremely rare action on the monthly and weekly chart, due to a lack of any correction this year. Aside from being above the monthly upper bollinger band the S&P 500 is some 12.5%+ over its 200 day moving average; over 10% is rare. The DJIA has been up 18 Tuesdays in a row. Etc etc.
It is a quiet week economically – a few …
May15
We are starting to see some very extreme readings on our monthly and weekly index charts since there has been no correction this year. I posted below first the monthly chart of the S&P 500 going back 15 years showing bollinger bands – rarely do we get above the upper monthly one, and never have we been this far above during this time frame. Then below that I posted (with 4 charts of 4 years each) the weekly data and you can see we are at a rare time when the index is above the weekly bollinger band as well. This non stop rally is getting very historical.
Monthly – we've never been this far above the upper bollinger band in the S&P 500 during the last 15 years, and that includes the 1999 …
May14
Hedge fund titan is infamous now for saying in 2010 as QE2 was being brought out that you must be long this market since the economy will either improve (to help the market) or the Fed will act to get the market moving. So now his comments are very closely watched. Tepper had about a 30 minute segment this morning on CNBC and didn't pull back on any of his bull nature. If anything he now implies if there is no tapering by the Fed the market can go into "hyper" mode (i.e. a bubble awaits) …
May13
Very little change from last week. Whatever the news it is good news for the market – the economy is not strong enough to stop QE, but not weak enough to worry anyone. We are in this perpetual 1-2% type of GDP, with job growth just above population growth each month and little inflationary pressure in figures the Fed cares about. It remains all about central banks – the twin powers of Japan and U.S. continue to plow ahead unabated (with the yen decimated even further last week). Last week a bevy of central banks joined in easing – Australia, South Korea, Poland, among a few others; again just last week alone. This morning Israel joined the party; it has essentially been a bank a day this past week. There really is no other discussion than the global action by central banks; it dominates everything in these markets. Late Friday, the Fed talking head at the WSJ, Hilsenrath, wrote a story about a …
May06
Friday was pretty typical of the year – when a key technical level was needed to be broken it happened in premarket. There were 3 economic data points, 2 (including ISM Non Manufacturing) missed, but all that mattered was the employment report. More broadly speaking with 5-6 weeks of weakening economic data all the market really did was go sideways in a wide range. And that ended Friday with the break out of the S&P 500; even the lagging Russell 2000 joined in.
At this point there just appears no reason to do analysis anymore – the central banker liquidity seems to have …