A Conversation with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor

It has been just over a year since the last conversation with Andrew Horowitz and his weekly podcast, so we just had our return engagement at the end of last week (right before the big Friday drop).   Most of the focus was on the market that just won't quit, the constant rotation, the lack of correction, the divergences that have yet to matter and the like.   Feel free to…

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Tuesdays with Benjamin

This chart sums it up – the market has been all about Tuesdays since mid January.  Flat otherwise.   What is peculiar is that while some of us were talking about this pattern 6-7 weeks ago, it has in the last few weeks become obvious to everyone – yet still continues.  That's not how it used to work…once something becomes obvious on Wall Street it traditionally fails quite quickly….

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SPX Reaching Historical Extremes on Weekly/Monthly Chart

We are starting to see some very extreme readings on our monthly and weekly index charts since there has been no correction this year.  I posted below first the monthly chart of the S&P 500 going back 15 years showing bollinger bands – rarely do we get above the upper monthly one, and never have we been this far above during this time frame.  Then below that I posted…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Jun05

Good data on ISM Non Mfg – new orders was the star up 1.5 and at 56.0.  Employment however fell 1.9.  This report is more important to the U.S. economy as there is far more service work than manufacturing work.

Full report here.

"The NMI™ registered 53.7 percent in May, 0.6 percentage point higher than the 53.1 percent registered in April. This indicates continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector.

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Jun05

Some interesting econ data this morning – the ADP employment came in light but a bit of a jaw dropping news in quarterly (Q1) labor costs which showed a massive drop.   That said, Q4 2012 was back loaded with compensation to avoid the tax rates of 2013 so there is a lot of noise in the data right now.  But longer term, labor costs have really stagnated in the country as the era of outsourcing and automation continues to crush labor and benefit those who own capital.

As for the S&P 500 we are in the fourth mini correction of this trend from mid November, and perhaps the

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Jun04

The DJIA is up 20 Tuesdays in a row.  This streak is now known by everyone.  As stated in the past when everyone is aware of something it usually stops working.  But this has been said for quite a few weeks now.

More importantly than that quirk we have a broken wedge in the S&P 500, and thus far the retracement to the bottom of that wedge (triangle) today has been relatively uninspiring.  At minimum bulls want to get back into this wedge, and then the next step above the top side of it.  Bears want to see things remain below and continue to see lower highs being made.

Believe it or not this is the

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Jun03

You can't see it from the indexes but a very damaging day in the momentum type of stocks, most of which had held up reasonably through late last week.  Not so much today.  Everything from biotech to solar to Elon Musk to 3D printing is being hit very hard.

 

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Jun03

Contractionary number in ISM Manufacturing as we have a reading below 50.  Expectations were 50.5 to 51.0 range.  Nothing much good in the details either as employment and new orders (especially) stunk.   We shall see after the knee jerk down if the market "embraces" the report since bad = more and longer QE.

Full report here.

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