60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Launch of Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX)

Hanna Capital is proud to announce the launch of its flagship fund, the Paladin Long Short Fund (PALFX).  Available through a variety of brokers as well as direct purchase, this no-load fund seeks capital appreciation.  See the fund's prospectus here. Distributor: Capital Investment Group, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC , 17 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, NC 27603, (800) 773-3863.  There is no affiliation between Hanna Capital LLC, including its principals, and Capital Investment Group, Inc….

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Sep18

Party on Garth.

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Sep18

The business media likes to hype up almost all of these Federal Reserve meetings as if there is a seismic shift afoot due to a comma being moved in paragraph 4 of the statement, or if the word gradual is changed to average in paragraph 2.  It's a lot of nonsense to try to create an event where there is none.  However, today's FOMC announcement has the potential for more impact than the usual dog and pony show.  Since May, when it was first floated that some form of "tapering" (not the correct word really) of quantitative easing could be afoot by the end of the year yields on

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Sep16

Futures are screaming higher today as last evening it was reported that Larry Summers "withdrew" (ahem) his name for consideration for the Federal Reserve chairmanship.  As he is seen EVER so slightly more hawkish than Yellen, the market is reacting in predictable fashion … "more morphine for longer! yes!"   From another perspective this is a positive simply for the fact that Rubin+Summers essentially destroyed the banking regulatory safeguards that had kept the financial system somewhat intact for many decades… so offering the top banking regulatory job to a man who did that, would have been amazing.  The fact it was even a reality is… amazing.

Turning back to the market, last week we had a burst early and then sideways action to work off an oversold condition.  We are now firmly back in a V shaped rally.

All eyes this week will be on the FOMC meeting and news conference Wednesday.  Many expect the first step to reduce QE to be announced to the tune of 10-15B a month, focused mostly on Treasuries so that the Fed can continue to support the housing market.   It is possible this has already been priced into the market per the backup in Treasury rates the past few months.  A potential upside surprise is Ben kicking the can on any reduction in QE.  There are some housing reports on the economic docket but really this week is all about the Fed as Syria seems to be on the backburner.

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Sep13

Twitter announced yesterday it has filed a confidential S-1 as a precursor to a potential IPO.  Being one of the 'name' franchises of the current internet, this should be one of those huge deals when the day comes.   Some thoughts from BusinessInsider:

  • The early Twitter IPO "price talk" is $20 billion.  This would be 17-times Twitter's projected 2014 revenue of $1.2 billion.
  • We don't have precise information yet on Twitter's financials over the past  few years, but the company's growth rate is said to be about 100% per year. So  the projection of $1.2 billion of revenue in 2014 would be up from, say, $600  million this year. (We'll know more when we see the filings).
  • A multiple of 17-times 2014 revenue, meanwhile, compares to 2013 revenue  multiples of 15-times for Facebook and 19-times for LinkedIn.  So this price would be in the ballpark of where similar companies are  trading.

 

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Sep12

The market is coming into Thursday overheated short term as the now familiar "V" shape bounce is back.  In many ways this is identical to the last move off lows in late June when after the initial oversold bounce, the S&P 500 rallied 8 sessions in a row in July.  It then took a 1 day break, rallied 4 more days, and that was the majority of that move.   Similarly, we had an oversold bounce in late September, and then entering today the index has rallied 7 sessions in a row with the moves this week mostly on gap ups overnight.  If a similar pattern as last time holds, a short term rest soon and then it continues.   It is no longer the surprising move, but the expected move in the quantitative easing era.  Speaking of next week is

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