Market Montage
Stock Market, Economics, Equity Analysis
May24
While the S&P 500 has had quite a year already the Nikkei has been the story of the globe as they are performing acts of central banking that even put the U.S. Fed to shame. And Japan's central bank can buy ETFs and REITs directly per their charter versus the U.S. bank. Combined with a yen in free fall it's been a heck of a move for the Nikkei since last November. I noted last week we were seeing extremely rare weekly and monthly type overbought readings on both the U.S. and Japanese markets but with central banks with their pedal to the metal these things can subsist longer than you can remain solvent if you bet against them. As in fall 1999 and early 00 you just never know when these things exhaust. But finally we are seeing some the situation relent.
On the weekly Nikkei chart below the …
May23
Some quick notes:
- Futures down moderately after yesterday's outside day. The extreme overbought conditions on the weekly and monthly index charts are finally relenting some. Even uber bulls would prefer solid entry points on stocks rather than chasing constantly. The S&P 500 had not touched the 10 day moving average since May 2nd, until yesterday – a not common situation. In theory the S&P 500 could go all the way down to 1597 – which was its primary breakout level – and still be in decent condition, but surely dip buyers trained in Pavlovian fashion wait much earlier. In fact as I type they have already cut losses substantially.
- The Nikkei has a lot of attention by the media as it was punished to the tune of 7%+ overnight. The same media fail to mention …
May22
The indexes along with a host of stocks are putting in a bearish outside candle today (over yesterday's highs and below yesterday's lows). Typically this is … well bearish. But in the QE era when a technical signal screams bearish it has tended to be completely forgotten within a few days, causing those who follow it to get squeezed if you are short or left behind if you go to cash. This is the difficulty of the current market – QE causes it not to behave as normal. In the "old days" today would be a day to take major note of.
The RSI I noted at an extremely rare 75 this morning, is now down to 63 …
May22
Doing a lot of data mining as we watch this market go parabolic.
The S&P 500 is 13.4% over the 200 day moving average. 10%+ is considered overbought, and 12% is very rare.
The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the S&P 500 is 75. Over 70 is generally overbought (below 30 oversold). To put in perspective in 1999 the S&P touched 70ish a few times but never hit 75. The NASDAQ in 1999 – early 2000 hit mid 70s a few days in July 99 and Mar 00. Then in the parabolic move in November and December 1999 (NASDAQ gained over 1000 pts!) it sat between 70 and mid 80s for most of two months; of course that was a once in 40-50 year event but this is the level of history we are currently seeing.
May22
One runs out of superlatives to describe the current market.
Every day or week a new record seems to be set. A few of the current – yesterday was the 19th Tuesday in a row that the DJIA was up; the DJIA is now guaranteed to go without a 3 day losing streak for 100 days, breaking the 95 day record in 1927, the NASDAQ has had 17 days in a row of a new higher high, the best since Nov 1999, etc etc. Meanwhile Japan is in the realm of 50% YTD gains as their currency is kicked in the teeth.
Definitely an era to keep in our memory banks as the action is abnormal.
Mr. Dudley (NY Fed) spoke yesterday and sounded quite dovish noting he did not know if the next step for the Fed would be to decrease OR increase bond purchases. Bernanke speaks at 10 AM, FOMC minutes at 2 PM. Outside of the central banks changing course we appear stuck in this zombie like state.
Sidebar
Subscribe
Explore the Fund Mark Manages
