60 Minutes on the Explosion of Disability Enrollees

60 Minutes this past Sunday did a piece on a story that has been talked about in these pages for a long time – the rapid increase in disability enrollment since the recession half a decade ago.  It is quite remarkable that effectively 5% of the working population is now enrolled. [Apr 7, 2011: Nearly 1 in 20 Working Age Americans Are on Disability, a Doubling Versus 1990]  [Dec…

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WSJ's Hilsenrath on Janet Yellen

With the demise of Larry Summers, all eyes point to Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve head.  Frankly it is a bit surprising she was not the leading candidate all along.   Earlier this year, we posted a NY Times piece on the woman [Apr 25, 2013: NY Times Does Janet Yellen] from a more personal level and now we have one on the Fed whisperer himself, Jon Hilsenrath…

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The Most Overbought Point in 2013

Quite an explosive rally yesterday at the 2 PM mark, in fact about 70% of yesterday's gains came in a minute or so per Bespoke Investment; the power of algos.   Obviously the Fed, by surprising just about everyone with "no taper at all", lit another fire under the market but coming off a near vertical rally since late August it is still a bit surprising to see the…

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Nov20

Looks like the wave of selling seen here is being caused by remarks from Benjamin Bernanke.  Essentially he said the Fed's tools to fight headwinds is not infinite and the Fed does not have tools to prevent going off the fiscal cliff.  Nothing shocking there but I guess the market believes the Fed has infinite powers.  Maybe these words were directed at D.C. more than NYC.  We shall see how long this temper tantrum lasts.   The market had been consolidating yesterday's gains very well until these words hit.

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Nov20

Nothing like a 2% day to make oversold conditions evaporate.   As constantly noted, the most vicious up moves come within the context of selloffs, and yesterday was a wonderful example of that notion.  Friday morning there were extreme oversold readings in a multitude of secondary indicators, and just like that in a session and a half those have been relieved.  Now to be clear neutral is very different than overbought so keep that in mind.  One indicator I often post is seen below:

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Nov19

It has been a remarkable year for Apple (AAPL) stock in so many ways; both up and down.  After an epic rally in the spring, and another (if lesser) one this fall, the stock has been in its own "bear market" the past few months.  Things were so bad it had not had back to back gains since mid October – quite a statement for a stock that seemingly could not go down back in February-April.

Despite the consistent selling there was only one gap down day for the stock, which you can see around $580.  So if this rally continues that is a sensible spot to see the stock run to.

 

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Nov19

As stated late Friday all the necessary components for a short term bounce were triggering except for a high over the previous day's high… but it was close enough for government work.  A point here or there in the closing 5 minutes would have done the trick.   It is funny how the news often fits the market, and what I mean by that is that comments out of government Friday morning set stocks off just at the point they needed to, at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the S&P 500.  

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Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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Nov16

First thing this morning I mentioned that a key first step for a short term reversal would be a close over the previous day's high at the end of the day.  With 15 minutes to go this is now a real possibility for the S&P 500 – yesterday's high was 1360.62 and the current price is 1360.22.   That said, even if it does not happen there was a nice bounce off the 61.8% retracement level – literally to the point (!) and a reversal intraday.  Let's see if bulls can follow through during Turkey Week to deliver that long sought oversold bounce.  Have a good one.

Disclosure Notice

Any securities mentioned on this page are not held by the author in his personal portfolio.

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